Premier League and FA Cup predictions: Fulham ends Liverpool’s title quest | Football news

Jones Knows focuses on the weekend’s football celebration in the Premier League and FA Cup, spreading his betting insight and analysis across the map.

Watch Premier League highlights for free on the Sky Sports app
Image:
Watch Premier League highlights for free on the Sky Sports app

Everton vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 1.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Everton vs Nottingham Forest

I have always tended to look positively at what Sean Dyche is doing under major restrictions at Everton.

The underlying numbers have been strong despite the poor results, Goodison Park is a tough place to play and Dyche himself is a manager with an underrated record at this level.

But I’m losing confidence – fast.

They are in a rut and may not get out of it in the next six games. Just one win in their last fifteen Premier League games and scoring just ten goals in that period is, quite frankly, pathetic. These are relegation-worthy results.

But one thing that has kept them going all season is their exemplary defense. That’s why I stayed with them in difficult times. But now that defense that was once a rock is now a sieve. Holes appear.

Sean Dyche has been in charge of Everton for a year

Their expected goals in the last seven games have fallen to 1.90 per 90 – it is the fifth worst goal score in the Premier League in that time. And they haven’t played anyone higher than sixth during that period.

I have so much more confidence in Nottingham Forest’s attacking line, with Morgan Gibbs-White probably head and shoulders the best forward on the Goodison Park pitch. They have won four of the last five expected goal battles and scored in each of those five games. I think Forest will score – and that should be enough not to lose the game, as Everton are unable to score more than once in a Premier League match in their current form.

Take your pick from the pro-Forest corners dancing in value. Forest on the double chance on 8/11 with Sky Bet looks very tasty, as does the draw no bet option on 6/4. If you fancy an away win at 5/2, then adding Gibbs-White to score or assist the celebration at 5/1 seems like a smart play.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Double odds on Nottingham Forest (8/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here) and Morgan Gibbs-White to score or assist in a Forest win (5/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Aston Villa – Bournemouth, Sunday 3pm

I’m not too worried about a potential hangover after Villa’s exhausting win over Lille in the midweek penalty shoot-out. The last nine Premier League teams to go to penalties in a European knockout match went unbeaten in their next match, seven of which won. Villa can use that momentum to their advantage and seems fair enough to me at 5/6 with Sky Bet for the home win.

The match’s overall offside line is also worth a look, with five or more priced at 6/5 with Sky Bet – that looks a generous line. We know all about Villa’s high line, which has caught their opponents offside 147 times this season – that’s an average of 4.5 times per game. But Bournemouth also like to put pressure on the game, especially of late when they have caught the opposition offside ten times in the last four games. I see this game hitting the five or more line, just like the reverse game.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Crystal Palace vs West Ham, Sunday 3pm

Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. What a duo.

Use the Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Crystal Palace’s win against Liverpool in the Premier League.

The dynamic duo started together at Anfield for the first time since Crystal Palace’s 3-2 win over Sheffield United in January and Palace looked a very different beast, with much more confidence in possession and plenty of fruitful attacking moments.

Since the start of last season, in the 28 Premier League games in which Eze and Olise have both started, Palace have a winning percentage of 46 percent and an average of 1.4 goals per 90 minutes. Compare that to the 42 games without at least one of them starting. Those figures dropped dramatically to a 14 percent win rate and 0.9 goals per 90 minutes.

xxx

With the smart addition of the very exciting Adam Wharton, this Palace team – with Eze and Olise fit and firing – look capable of producing some impressive attacking results under Oliver Glasner in their remaining games and I will be backing them if the prices are good. – where they are here.

West Ham have gone fourteen clean sheets in the Premier League and their overall defensive performance since the turn of the year has been abysmal. They have conceded the third most goals of any team in those 14 games (28) and their expected goals conceded per 90 is 2.14, which is the second worst of any team for that period, behind only Luton .

Palace scoring two or more goals is a great chance at 10/11 with Sky Bet, which has to be one of the best prices of the weekend.

SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Crystal Palace to score two or more goals (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Coventry vs Manchester United, Sunday 3.30pm, FA Cup semi-final – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Coventry will be hoping to channel the legacy of Keith Houchin and his header from the 1987 FA Cup final against Tottenham. One of my favorite FA Cup goals.

This is a fascinating semi-final as Manchester United could easily be theirs for the taking, although massive kills are rare once we get to this stage.

United’s extra quality in the final third is likely to win them this match, not their style of play which continues to baffle. Are they trying to play a low block and also be a pressing team? It’s weird.

Use the Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

In his podcast, Gary Neville believes Erik ten Hag’s future at Manchester United will depend on whether they are successful in the FA Cup.

And they will allow Coventry to move towards their goal at regular intervals. As with many teams against United, it will mainly be the shots and corners that require a blow, and not the goals against the column.

United Corners’ goals conceded tally continues to spiral out of control, with 119 players in their last twelve Premier League games – again the most of any Premier League team in that period. Average 9.9 per match.

Since the Coventry line here at 5/6 with Sky Bet is only on five or more corners, it simply has to be attacked. The Sky Blues have won the second most corners in the Sky Bet Championship this season, so their style of play tends to force them. Continuing with the previous form, even the higher Coventry corner lines can be 10 or more at 16/1 and 12 or more at 33/1 bishops for big prizes.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Fulham vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Fulham vs Liverpool

Since Rodrigo Muniz joined Fulham in January, Fulham have become one of the most dangerous attacking forces in the Premier League. Muniz’s eight goals have certainly been the catalyst for their improved numbers, but as a team their entire process is working beautifully at the moment.

Over the last twelve Premier League games, only Liverpool and Man City have averaged more shots per game (17) and only Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal have averaged more shots from inside the box per game (12.3). In that time they have beaten Bournemouth, Man Utd, Brighton, Tottenham and West Ham – and should have made their dominance pay off in the first half against Newcastle – a game they somehow lost. This all adds up to an impressive form.

So with Liverpool’s midfield looking on the brink of breakdown and their attackers failing, Fulham look a good prospect at 6/4 with Sky Bet to avoid defeat and 9/2 outright for the victory.

Willian who scores at 11/2 also stands out.

Surprisingly he hasn’t scored since scoring in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final between these two at Anfield, but after a spell of injuries he looked sparkling in the win over West Ham. He’s also probably Fulham’s penalty taker, which is always a bonus to have in your side when supporting goalscorers. The Brazilian can score a home win – something that can be backed at 12/1 using the BuildABet with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Advertising content | Stream Sky Sports NOW

NOW PROMO APRIL 2024

Stream Sky Sports live without a contract with a monthly or daily membership on NOW. Instant access to live action from the Premier League, EFL, F1, England Cricket and much more.

Discover more here…